Wondering what my next campaigning blog should be, I didn’t expect my manager to send me a Guardian piece on pop-music as inspiration.
The Guardian article explores research from Queen Mary University that finds that pop melodies have become simpler over time. She sent it with this prompt:
“…thought it might be an interesting kick-off to a short blog about why the impact of campaigning and influencing, like the merit of pop music, is so hard to measure.”
My first thought: Oh god.
My second thought: Actually, I completely get it.
Just as measuring the merit of pop music is an elusive task, understanding the impact of campaigning can be equally challenging. Both are dynamic, multi-faceted, and deeply tied to cultural and social contexts that often resist neat, quantifiable metrics. As the Guardian article argues, there are limitations to using narrow measurements to assess something far more complex than raw numbers can ever show.
Take Queen Mary’s research. Their analysis is based on melody alone, omitting other elements like lyrics, production techniques, or societal influences. Yet it’s clear that pop hits driven by diss tracks or collaborations between very different artists may have ‘simple’ melodies but perform powerful cultural work.
Kendrick Lamar might look at pop bands of the 50s and think “they not like us” and perhaps he’d be right. But, while those groups of the 50s might have been trailblazers, you’d be hard pressed to understate the impact of Kendrick’s Drake diss track. To reduce it to a melody is to ignore so many other important features of the work; from bringing the whole West Coast together on stage; to flooding social media feeds with ‘Crip Walks’ and dance routines; even being credited for helping young Kenyans successfully protest a tax bill.
Music embodies mood, identity, cultural movement, and even social discourse, elements that are difficult, if not impossible, to measure with mathematical models. This is also true of campaigning and social change.
Campaign impact: beyond simple metrics
Like pop music, the effectiveness of a campaign cannot be reduced to basic metrics. Many rely on surface-level numbers like social media engagement or donations to measure success. While important, they cannot measure deeper forms of impact that are less tangible but equally significant.
A campaign might aim to shift public opinion on a complex issue, like climate change or social justice. In the short term, it may not generate millions of shares or see a shift in policy. Yet, its impact may manifest years later through changes in discourse that are hard to draw a direct line to. The message and the emotional tone of a campaign can influence public sentiment in ways that go unnoticed by analytics but ripple through communities in lasting ways.
Just Stop Oil is an immediate example. A social media search might suggest that campaign methods that alienate many people are counterproductive, but there’s evidence that their actions make the issue live, and that people are more likely to support the same cause through more ‘moderate’ organisations, such as Friends of the Earth, as a result – a significant impact but not one that’s immediately obvious or easily measurable.
It’s also worth noting that very few examples of social change can be attributed to a single actor. When looking at impact you need to look at the whole environment and ecosystem in which change happens. Much like genres of music, which need a rich and diverse scene for culture to grow and evolve, change needs a diverse set of conversations and tactics to take root. Shifts in awareness, conversation, and behaviour don’t translate into results overnight but do lay the ground for further change to come. These are the more ‘invisible’ factors that traditional metrics might overlook.
What metrics might we use? And why are they incomplete?
There are many quantifiable metrics to track – chart rankings and social media likes, downloads and votes, money made and fundraising totals. But they are often incomplete or even misleading. Let’s explore some of the more common metrics used in campaigns, why they’re useful, and where they fall short.
Social Media Engagement: Likes, shares, and comments provide quick feedback on how many people see or react to a campaign. But, engagement doesn’t always mean people have truly connected with the message.
Donations/Funding: For fundraising campaigns based on social change outcomes, donation totals are a vital metric but they miss other forms of participation, like volunteering or activism, that can lay foundations for deeper change without translating into figures on the balance sheet.
Legislation: In politically facing campaigns, securing change in legislation is often the ultimate goal. Yet, we’ve seen with examples such as campaigns to repeal the Vagrancy Act that legislation is often only a first step.
Media Coverage: The amount and tone of media coverage help gauge how much visibility a campaign has but doesn’t necessarily reflect its deeper resonance with the audience.
Algorithms and data can offer important insights into many discrete aspects of campaigning but they provide only a narrow view, missing the full scope of human engagement, context, and emotional resonance. The invisible parts of both music and campaigning are just as important as the visible ones. And while they may be hard to measure, acknowledging their presence helps us better understand the full power and purpose of both.